Colin Powell: Go with your gut

Powell’s advice is don’t take action if you have only enough information to give you less than a 40 percent chance

of being right, but don’t wait until you have enough facts to be 100 percent sure, because by then it is almost always too late. His instinct is right: "Today, excessive delays in the name of information-gathering breeds "analysis paralysis". Procrastinat

http://www.littleafrica.com/career/powell.html

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Or these in which he also echoes theme’s in Sidney’s paper as well as some of the probabilistic and confidence topics we’ve been discussing.