Experience is mandatory; learning is optional

If we can’t realistically assess the past we won’t learn from it, even if we kid ourselves into believing we did.

Russo, Schoemaker, Decision Traps, 1989, pg 175

Bender Gestalt test:

• Trained psychologists with years of experience:

• Grad students:

• Psychologists secretaries:

• Renowned expert:

65%

67%

70%

83% (best) with feedback loop

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Let’s subtitle this portion, “experience is mandatory; learning is optional.” The premise being that if we can’t realistically assess past experiences we won’t learn from them although I believe the assumption will be that we did. One relevant study was

Review results on slide.

We see that a first barrier to learning is failing to incorporate deliberate feedback on effectiveness.