Descriptors

A group consists of 70 engineers and 30 lawyers.

Dick is a member of the above group with the following ‘personality profile.’ He is a 30 year old man, married with no children. He is a man of high ability and high motivation. He promises to be quite successful in his field. He is well liked by his

What is the percent probability that Dick is an engineer?

Kahnemann, Slovic, Tversky, Judgement Under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases, 1982, pg 4

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This next example is odd in that it refutes the belief that more information is better or that completely irrelevant information has no impact. When people are told simply that Dick is a member of a group consisting of 70 engineers and 30 lawyers, they c

This is one of a whole series of such experiments showing that we disregard a quantitative base rate when focusing on a qualitative descriptor that appeals to our skills of categorizing and assessing people.