Confidence

Provide LOW and HIGH estimates of 90% confidence range

Martin Luther King’s age at death

Length of Nile river

Number of countries that ar members of OPEC

Number of books in the Old Testament

Diameter of the moon in miles

Weight (pounds) of an empty Boeing 747

Year in which Mozart was born

Gestation period (days) of an Asian elephant

Air distance from London to Tokyo

Deepest known point in ocean (feet).

Russo, Schoemaker, Decision Traps, 1989, pg 71

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Notes:

We’ll actually do this next experiment here in our group. I have a series of questions that you may or may not know the answer to. What I want you to do is answer each with a range of possibilities such that you are 90% confident that the correct answer

We’ll go through these fairly quickly.