Reference Points
100 surgeries; 10 dies during, 32 die within year, 66 in five years.
100 radiation therapies; none die during, 23 die within year and 78 die in five years
Russo, Schoemaker, Decision Traps, 1989, pg 26
Notes:
We’ll start with an example of ‘framing,’ how the way in which a question is asked greatly influences the answer even when supposedly dealing with hard, quantitative, “data-driven” decision making.
A group of physicians trained to counsel patients are asked to imagine they have cancer and are offered two therapies.