Dealing with uncertainty

There is surely considerable truth to this notion that people lack good schemata for working with probabilistic information.

- Nisbett, Borgida, Crandall, Reed, paper in Carroll , Payne, Cognition and Social Behavior, 1976 -

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Notes:

As we approach the topic of uncertainty, we should acknowledge that we are on non-intuitive ground -- not that this can’t be learned and well-applied but we don’t have a lot of prewiring for it. This is something we’ll look at more fully as we examine ou