Table of Contents
Simulation and Modeling at Eli Lilly
Why do we model? (these are probably in order)
Simulation and Modeling
Simulation Issues
Black Box Syndrome
Black Box Revealed
Chemical Process Modeling early-mid 1980's
Simulation and Modeling
Chemical Process
Production Tank
Insert data slides from model
Simulation and Modeling
GI Model
GI Model
Lilly Modelling Conference 5/87
Simulation and Modeling
Process Phase II Costs/Mercer/Distr
Pig in a snake
Model Criticism
100Years/2500/SSinit
Simulation and Modeling
Lilly Development Strategy
Project Flow Models
Project Flow Model
Goal and Objective
Models Developed
Simplified 400 Day Process Focuses on critical path(s)
It really is a pipe... (apologies to Magritte)
But it leaks....
Some spots leak more than others.....
The flow time between holes is variable....
The model describes how big the holes are and the time between them....
We can insert probes...
We observe the cumulative effects of holes and flows and the parameters that influence those. Since we control these, we can test scenarios....
Milestones & Critical Path
Example: Fate of Projects
Insert Slides fromModel
We need to know?
Simulation and Modeling
Speke Automation Strategy
Decision Sciences Two- Tiered Approach
Project Outcomes
Decision Quality Wheel
Customer Satisfaction
Speke Automation Strategy problem
Speke Automation Strategy process
Speke Automation Strategy
Speke Automation Strategy score
Simulation and Modeling
PPT Slide
Tools: A monte carlo simulation model of the problem was developed for in depth analysis of the following information:
Outcome
Score
Simulation and Modeling
Insert BioDev Rethink slides
Simulation and Modeling
Milestones & Critical Path
Example Fate of Projects
Web Server
Current Applications
"There are many ways to summarize the limitations of the representation paradigm, the idea that knowledge consists basically in making maps of the world. But the simplest way to state the problem with maps is: they leave out the mapmaker... And no matter how different the various postmodern attacks were, they were all united in an attack on the representation paradigm."
"The model is of necessity flawed. Were this not so, it would be the thing itself."
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